{"F": {"ts_code": "003031.SZ", "name": "中瓷电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 113.78, "pe_ttm": 75.4458, "pb": 8.0581, "dv_ttm": 0.3867, "total_mv": 5132079.8962, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.9, 28.9, 27.4, 35.6, 36.4, 37.2], "rev_series": [8.2, 10.1, 25.1, 26.8, 26.5, 28.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 4.6, 4.9, 5.4, 5.6], "roe_series": [12.3, 11.2, 12.5, 14.3, 9.3, 9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.9, "np_ttm": 6.9, "ocf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 35.6, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 21.3, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.1, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 8.06, "capex_dep": 2.78, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.5, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": 7.1, "rev_yoy": 54.8, "np_yoy": 41.2, "np_vol": 8.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 53.0], ["电子陶瓷材料及元件", 39.0], ["第三代半导体器件及模块", 18.0], ["减：内部抵销数", -5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": 56.5, "ret_pivot": 227.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -21.5, "ret_120": 36.5, "ret_250": 85.7, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 70.4, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 54, "hard": 43, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 75.4 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.6%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 2.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 86%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -22% / 36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "中瓷电子:PE 比行业中位低 9.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.9个百分点。"]}}