{"F": {"ts_code": "003030.SZ", "name": "祖名股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.74, "pe_ttm": 307.6927, "pb": 3.1763, "dv_ttm": 0.6034, "total_mv": 308705.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.3, 26.4, 25.4, 27.3, 22.7, 23.8], "rev_series": [12.3, 13.4, 14.9, 14.8, 16.6, 20.3], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, -0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [13.5, 5.6, 3.7, 3.9, -2.4, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -7.9, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.0, "fix_assets": 15.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 3.18, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 10.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 57.9, "debt_mv": 32.5, "payout": 60.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": -13.0, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": -167.8, "np_vol": 117.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 77.3, "fwd_pe2": 49.5, "fwd_g1": 298.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 1.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["生鲜豆制品", 22.0], ["生鲜类豆制品", 22.0], ["植物蛋白饮品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.9, "ret_prev2_year": -28.7, "ret_ytd": 23.5, "ret_pivot": 93.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": 20.2, "ret_250": 26.0, "mdd_250": -23.7, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 93.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 100, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 307.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%、固定资产占比 64%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 307.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 6% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "祖名股份:PE 比行业中位高 268.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.5个百分点。"]}}