{"F": {"ts_code": "003029.SZ", "name": "吉大正元", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3987, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 340771.552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.9, 58.3, 67.2, 56.0, 53.0, 53.6], "rev_series": [6.1, 8.2, 4.9, 4.1, 4.1, 4.1], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, -0.3, -1.6, -1.4, -1.1], "roe_series": [11.1, 11.1, -2.5, -12.4, -11.8, -10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 56.0, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 7.3, "npm_median": -24.6, "roe_median": -10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.2, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 7.63, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.4, "np_yoy": 18.6, "np_vol": 151.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["网络安全产品", 27.0], ["网络安全服务", 18.0], ["网络安全生态", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": 10.7, "ret_ytd": -32.8, "ret_pivot": -3.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": -42.1, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 71, "hard": 61, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 56.0% 两条都占,但所在行业(计算机)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 7.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "吉大正元:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.4个百分点。"]}}