{"F": {"ts_code": "003022.SZ", "name": "联泓新科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏辅材", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.31, "pe_ttm": 45.0943, "pb": 3.3056, "dv_ttm": 0.3625, "total_mv": 2578981.808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.4, 25.1, 20.2, 16.2, 16.5, 18.7], "rev_series": [59.3, 75.8, 81.6, 67.8, 62.7, 63.4], "np_series": [6.4, 10.9, 8.7, 4.5, 2.3, 3.1], "roe_series": [14.8, 18.4, 13.1, 6.3, 3.3, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 87.9, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.6, "fcf_ttm": -27.3, "fcf_yield": -10.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.2, "fix_assets": 191.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.31, "capex_dep": 6.23, "interest_debt": 150.3, "debt_ebitda": 9.4, "debt_ratio": 68.1, "debt_mv": 58.3, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -29.3, "rev_yoy": 84.3, "np_yoy": 165.7, "np_vol": 46.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 37.6, "fwd_pe2": 31.2, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种功能化学品", 29.0], ["新能源光伏材料", 29.0], ["副产品及其他", 16.0], ["特种树脂", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.7, "ret_prev2_year": -24.6, "ret_ytd": -2.2, "ret_pivot": 55.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.5, "ret_60": -21.8, "ret_120": -8.7, "ret_250": -3.9, "mdd_250": -38.5, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 67.3}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 44, "hard": 100, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 71%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 6.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -22% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "联泓新科:PE 比行业中位高 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 48.6个百分点。"]}}