{"F": {"ts_code": "003018.SZ", "name": "金富科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 55.5, "pe_ttm": 118.1679, "pb": 10.5926, "dv_ttm": 0.2984, "total_mv": 1742422.4001, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 28.2, 23.9, 26.2, 28.0, 29.1], "rev_series": [5.1, 6.6, 7.4, 7.7, 8.9, 7.6], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.0, 1.1, 1.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [8.8, 9.3, 7.7, 7.7, 9.2, 6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 14.4, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 17.5, "pb_calc": 10.59, "capex_dep": 1.08, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 40.9, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 50.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": -1.2, "rev_yoy": 82.4, "np_yoy": 93.9, "np_vol": 24.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 65.8, "fwd_pe2": 36.7, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 79.0, "peg": 0.83, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["饮料包装制品", 24.0], ["包装制品", 24.0], ["液冷散热产品及组件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.0, "ret_ytd": 286.2, "ret_pivot": 818.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 39.5, "ret_60": 15.5, "ret_120": 138.9, "ret_250": 427.9, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 83.6, "pos_52w": 85.9}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 51, "hard": 57, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 118.2 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 428%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 40% / 16% / 139%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "金富科技:PE 比行业中位高 79.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}