{"F": {"ts_code": "003017.SZ", "name": "大洋生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.64, "pe_ttm": 21.3645, "pb": 1.9477, "dv_ttm": 2.2085, "total_mv": 228211.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 19.4, 13.8, 18.1, 19.6, 22.9], "rev_series": [6.8, 7.8, 10.6, 9.2, 9.1, 10.5], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6, 1.0], "roe_series": [12.6, 7.2, 8.2, 5.0, 6.2, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.1, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.4, "fix_assets": 9.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 1.92, "interest_debt": 4.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 40.4, "debt_mv": 19.8, "payout": 49.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.4, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": 11.9, "np_yoy": 13.8, "np_vol": 34.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["无机盐产品", 35.0], ["精细化工产品", 11.0], ["其他产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.8, "ret_prev2_year": -22.9, "ret_ytd": -8.1, "ret_pivot": 88.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 35.0, "pos_52w": 75.6}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 43, "hard": 73, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 1.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.4 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "大洋生物:PE 比行业中位低 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}