{"F": {"ts_code": "003016.SZ", "name": "欣贺股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.33, "pe_ttm": 65.8103, "pb": 1.1332, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 308242.3328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.0, 71.5, 69.4, 69.4, 67.0, 66.6], "rev_series": [18.3, 21.0, 17.4, 17.6, 14.1, 14.8], "np_series": [1.8, 2.9, 1.3, 1.0, -0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [7.3, 9.6, 4.4, 3.5, -2.5, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 69.4, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.9, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 1.63, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 21.3, "debt_mv": 12.6, "payout": 96.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": -48.2, "rev_yoy": 7.7, "np_yoy": 196.6, "np_vol": 100.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["成衣", 49.0], ["配件等", 1.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.0, "ret_prev2_year": 8.9, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": 19.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": -10.8, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 74, "hard": 37, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 65.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 69.4%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.4%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "欣贺股份:PE 比行业中位高 28.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点。"]}}