{"F": {"ts_code": "003015.SZ", "name": "日久光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.07, "pe_ttm": 36.2051, "pb": 2.9866, "dv_ttm": 1.6285, "total_mv": 339247.5069, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.8, 36.2, 28.6, 22.1, 26.5, 32.4], "rev_series": [5.2, 4.9, 4.7, 4.8, 5.8, 6.7], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 0.4, -0.2, 0.7, 1.0], "roe_series": [11.4, 7.3, 3.7, -1.6, 6.9, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 28.6, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -10.3, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.8, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.99, "capex_dep": 1.64, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 12.4, "debt_mv": 1.3, "payout": 66.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.5, "np_cagr3": 37.9, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": -23.8, "np_vol": 227.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["导电膜产品", 33.0], ["导电膜", 33.0], ["光学膜产品", 9.0], ["光学膜", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": 23.5, "ret_ytd": -21.6, "ret_pivot": 10.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -28.5, "ret_250": -35.1, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 59.6}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 47, "hard": 68, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.2 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%、固定资产占比 43%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.2 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -3% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "日久光电:PE 比行业中位低 25.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点。"]}}