{"F": {"ts_code": "003013.SZ", "name": "地铁设计", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201022", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.33, "pe_ttm": 20.1443, "pb": 2.2549, "dv_ttm": 1.906, "total_mv": 749378.3111, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 34.1, 33.1, 37.2, 38.4, 38.6], "rev_series": [18.7, 23.8, 24.8, 25.7, 27.5, 25.7], "np_series": [2.9, 3.6, 4.0, 4.3, 4.9, 4.7], "roe_series": [19.6, 19.0, 19.6, 18.9, 19.1, 16.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.6, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 17.1, "roe_median": 19.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 47.6, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 39.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": -14.1, "np_yoy": -39.4, "np_vol": 9.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.4, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["勘察设计", 28.0], ["工程咨询", 11.0], ["工程总承包", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": 17.8, "ret_pivot": 45.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.9, "ret_60": 11.1, "ret_120": 14.3, "ret_250": 2.3, "mdd_250": -23.9, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 83.2}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 59, "hard": 22, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.1 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.2%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.1 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 11% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "地铁设计:PE 比行业中位低 20.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}