{"F": {"ts_code": "003012.SZ", "name": "东鹏控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.69, "pe_ttm": 33.5789, "pb": 0.7381, "dv_ttm": 5.1668, "total_mv": 542624.1828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 29.6, 29.7, 32.0, 29.7, 30.0], "rev_series": [71.6, 79.8, 69.3, 77.7, 64.7, 60.6], "np_series": [8.5, 1.5, 2.0, 7.2, 3.3, 3.5], "roe_series": [13.4, 2.1, 2.8, 9.6, 4.3, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.5, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 11.7, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.9, "fix_assets": 32.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.74, "capex_dep": 0.46, "interest_debt": 5.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 80.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.4, "np_cagr3": 20.3, "rev_yoy": -17.6, "np_yoy": -87.1, "np_vol": 119.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 17.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": 91.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["有釉砖", 41.0], ["卫生陶瓷", 3.0], ["卫浴产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": -25.6, "ret_pivot": -2.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.1, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 54, "hard": 48, "bondness": 80}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 81%、股息率 5.2%、营收 3 年复合 -4.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 11.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.6 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -1% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "东鹏控股:PE 比行业中位高 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}