{"F": {"ts_code": "003010.SZ", "name": "若羽臣", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "电商服务", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.6, "pe_ttm": 33.9426, "pb": 12.3627, "dv_ttm": 1.6129, "total_mv": 982948.02, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 31.6, 33.6, 40.2, 44.6, 59.8], "rev_series": [11.4, 12.9, 12.2, 13.7, 17.7, 34.3], "np_series": [0.9, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5, 1.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [11.1, 2.8, 3.1, 5.0, 9.6, 21.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.0, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 40.2, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 12.36, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 13.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 70.8, "debt_mv": 14.1, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 41.3, "np_cagr3": 79.2, "rev_yoy": 73.3, "np_yoy": 131.7, "np_vol": 58.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 25.3, "fwd_pe2": 17.7, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["品牌管理业务（产品）", 11.0], ["品牌管理业务", 11.0], ["自有品牌-绽家", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 157.5, "ret_prev2_year": 107.0, "ret_ytd": -8.9, "ret_pivot": 510.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.9, "ret_60": 31.4, "ret_120": 8.8, "ret_250": -26.0, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 53, "hard": 10, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 132%,PE TTM 33.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 25.3 倍,PEG 0.60。", "自由现金流 2.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 42%(23 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.9 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 31% / 9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "若羽臣:PE 比行业中位高 1.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}