{"F": {"ts_code": "003004.SZ", "name": "声迅股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 75.25, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.937, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 616025.4261, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.9, 39.6, 41.0, 42.3, 26.2, 30.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.1, 3.2, 2.8, 3.0, 3.8], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, -0.5, -0.1], "roe_series": [13.6, 5.7, 5.1, 3.2, -6.6, -1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 39.6, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.1, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 3.9, "pb_calc": 8.92, "capex_dep": 0.26, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 20.6, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 64.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 36.0, "np_yoy": -42.8, "np_vol": 128.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["安防运营服务", 28.0], ["城市安全运营服务", 28.0], ["智能安防解决方案", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": 235.9, "ret_pivot": 237.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.9, "ret_60": 17.2, "ret_120": 142.7, "ret_250": 284.1, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 54.3, "pos_52w": 89.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 47, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 284%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 17% / 143%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "声迅股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}