{"F": {"ts_code": "003003.SZ", "name": "天元股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "综合包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.22, "pe_ttm": 35.2932, "pb": 1.5305, "dv_ttm": 1.7588, "total_mv": 198279.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 11.9, 11.1, 14.9, 18.1, 20.1], "rev_series": [10.2, 12.9, 14.5, 14.2, 11.5, 10.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.3, -0.0, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [6.0, 2.1, -0.3, 4.1, 5.1, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.0, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.1, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 26.4, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -11.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.9, "np_yoy": -6.4, "np_vol": 653.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电子标签系列", 11.0], ["标签系列", 11.0], ["塑胶包装系列", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.4, "ret_prev2_year": -16.2, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 60.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -10.3, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 38.1, "pos_52w": 73.8}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 38, "hard": 50, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.3 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "天元股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}