{"F": {"ts_code": "003002.SZ", "name": "壶化股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.68, "pe_ttm": 25.9208, "pb": 2.2672, "dv_ttm": 0.9318, "total_mv": 353600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.5, 38.2, 38.5, 40.4, 41.2, 39.6], "rev_series": [5.6, 7.4, 9.6, 13.1, 11.0, 13.1], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 1.2, 2.0, 1.4, 1.7], "roe_series": [11.7, 7.8, 11.2, 16.8, 10.5, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 39.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 8.1, "pb_calc": 2.27, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 27.4, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 23.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 12.3, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -37.2, "np_vol": 38.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["工业雷管", 17.0], ["工业炸药", 13.0], ["爆破服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.8, "ret_prev2_year": 52.2, "ret_ytd": -45.0, "ret_pivot": 32.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": -15.7, "ret_120": -34.0, "ret_250": -31.8, "mdd_250": -56.0, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 58, "hard": 39, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.9 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.6%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -16% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "壶化股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点。"]}}