{"F": {"ts_code": "003000.SZ", "name": "劲仔食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "零食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200914", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.78, "pe_ttm": 18.5939, "pb": 3.1937, "dv_ttm": 4.02, "total_mv": 440974.5276, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 26.8, 25.6, 28.2, 30.5, 29.3], "rev_series": [9.1, 11.1, 14.6, 20.7, 24.1, 24.4], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 1.2, 2.1, 2.9, 2.4], "roe_series": [13.7, 9.7, 13.5, 18.4, 21.4, 17.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.0, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.4, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 5.61, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 37.6, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 62.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.7, "np_cagr3": 24.9, "rev_yoy": 23.1, "np_yoy": -5.0, "np_vol": 34.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["鱼制品", 24.0], ["风味小鱼", 24.0], ["禽类制品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.7, "ret_prev2_year": 16.9, "ret_ytd": -11.8, "ret_pivot": 0.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.9, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": -5.5, "ret_250": -24.5, "mdd_250": -26.5, "vol_250": 21.9, "pos_52w": 75.7}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 53, "hard": 63, "bondness": 51}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 63%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 18.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 5.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.6 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -10% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "劲仔食品:PE 比行业中位低 2.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}