{"F": {"ts_code": "002998.SZ", "name": "优彩资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.6, "pe_ttm": 32.4162, "pb": 1.7443, "dv_ttm": 4.3021, "total_mv": 305143.996, "trade_date": "20260903", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.7, 12.5, 8.0, 10.8, 9.5, 7.8], "rev_series": [13.6, 16.2, 22.5, 24.5, 23.6, 27.2], "np_series": [1.4, 1.0, 0.8, 1.4, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [12.1, 7.0, 5.0, 8.2, 4.8, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.1, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 9.7, "ocf_yield": 12.8, "gm_median": 9.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.7, "fix_assets": 11.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 28.4, "debt_mv": 13.8, "payout": 181.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.4, "np_cagr3": -12.5, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 103.9, "np_vol": 43.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 18.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 80.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["低熔点纤维", 77.0], ["再生有色涤纶短纤维", 16.0], ["低熔点长丝", 3.0], ["低熔点涤纶长丝", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": 19.8, "ret_pivot": 118.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": 21.3, "ret_120": -1.0, "ret_250": 8.6, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 45.7, "pos_52w": 87.6}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 37, "hard": 75, "bondness": 79}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.4 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 21% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "优彩资源:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}