{"F": {"ts_code": "002996.SZ", "name": "顺博合金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.2, "pe_ttm": 17.8358, "pb": 1.2556, "dv_ttm": 1.7514, "total_mv": 415050.816, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.7, 5.6, 2.8, 1.5, 3.1, 2.6], "rev_series": [48.7, 99.8, 110.7, 119.4, 139.8, 159.9], "np_series": [2.0, 3.4, 2.0, 1.2, 0.7, 2.2], "roe_series": [12.4, 16.8, 8.6, 5.0, 2.3, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 173.1, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -9.2, "fcf_ttm": -15.2, "fcf_yield": -36.7, "ocf_yield": -22.2, "gm_median": 2.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 24.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 3.56, "interest_debt": 103.3, "debt_ebitda": 22.2, "debt_ratio": 77.8, "debt_mv": 248.9, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.0, "np_cagr3": 3.5, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": 6.0, "np_vol": 132.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["铝合金锭(液)", 29.0], ["铝合金液", 29.0], ["铝板带压延铝材", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.6, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": 22.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -0.2, "ret_120": -21.5, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 70, "hard": 25, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.8 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.8%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 22.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 2.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -36.7%(经营现金流/市值 -22.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.8%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 3.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.8 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -0% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "顺博合金:PE 比行业中位低 2.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}