{"F": {"ts_code": "002992.SZ", "name": "宝明科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.65, "pe_ttm": 1875.9157, "pb": 8.1082, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 590535.979, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, -5.1, 3.3, 8.8, 10.3, 15.9], "rev_series": [13.8, 11.2, 9.4, 13.2, 15.2, 13.1], "np_series": [0.3, -3.5, -2.2, -1.2, -0.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [2.7, -26.9, -22.0, -14.4, -10.0, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 8.8, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.19, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": -9.5, "roe_median": -14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.4, "fix_assets": 9.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.11, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 7.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 65.6, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -67.6, "np_vol": 523.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["LED背光源器件", 24.0], ["LED背光源", 24.0], ["液晶面板深加工", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -23.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -31.4, "ret_pivot": -15.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": -38.4, "ret_250": -48.5, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 51.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 74, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%,稳定度 19%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%,稳定度 19%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1875.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -20% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "宝明科技:PE 比行业中位高 1814.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}