{"F": {"ts_code": "002990.SZ", "name": "盛视科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.76, "pe_ttm": 72.9284, "pb": 4.7575, "dv_ttm": 0.2139, "total_mv": 1224420.8872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.7, 38.1, 40.6, 39.2, 42.7, 37.5], "rev_series": [9.4, 11.3, 9.9, 15.7, 12.2, 14.5], "np_series": [2.2, 1.8, 1.0, 2.0, 1.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [17.9, 9.2, 4.7, 9.0, 7.4, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.3, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -11.9, "fcf_ttm": -21.7, "fcf_yield": -17.8, "ocf_yield": -9.7, "gm_median": 39.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.76, "capex_dep": 65.1, "interest_debt": 17.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 52.7, "debt_mv": 13.9, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": -4.0, "rev_yoy": 33.7, "np_yoy": 342.9, "np_vol": 57.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 32.0, "fwd_pe2": 19.6, "fwd_g1": 128.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智算业务", 48.0], ["智慧口岸查验系统解决方案", 46.0], ["智能交通及其他", 6.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.4, "ret_prev2_year": -32.4, "ret_ytd": 65.8, "ret_pivot": 137.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.5, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": 78.3, "ret_250": 44.2, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 64.5, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 57, "hard": 14, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 72.9 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 32.0 倍,次年 19.6 倍,PEG 0.51。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.2%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -17.8%(经营现金流/市值 -9.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 65.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 72.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / 8% / 78%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "盛视科技:PE 比行业中位高 21.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}