{"F": {"ts_code": "002988.SZ", "name": "豪美新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.15, "pe_ttm": 60.6859, "pb": 2.3926, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 653238.7675, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.8, 12.0, 10.2, 12.6, 12.0, 10.3], "rev_series": [34.4, 56.0, 54.1, 59.9, 66.7, 77.8], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, -1.1, 1.8, 2.1, 1.2], "roe_series": [6.6, 6.4, -5.0, 7.7, 8.1, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 18.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 2.96, "interest_debt": 30.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.5, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 46.4, "payout": 48.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.6, "np_yoy": -11.7, "np_vol": 143.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 27.2, "fwd_pe2": 23.8, "fwd_g1": 123.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["工业用铝型材", 18.0], ["一般工业用铝材", 18.0], ["汽车轻量化铝型材", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.2, "ret_prev2_year": -10.4, "ret_ytd": -28.9, "ret_pivot": 98.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.3, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -22.4, "ret_250": -41.7, "mdd_250": -59.7, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 70, "hard": 41, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 60.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 12.0%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.96 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 7% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "豪美新材:PE 比行业中位高 40.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}