{"F": {"ts_code": "002987.SZ", "name": "京北方", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.26, "pe_ttm": 41.5008, "pb": 4.4041, "dv_ttm": 1.4281, "total_mv": 1275600.4046, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 23.6, 22.5, 23.3, 22.4, 22.9], "rev_series": [22.9, 30.5, 36.7, 42.4, 46.4, 48.4], "np_series": [2.8, 2.3, 2.8, 3.5, 3.1, 3.3], "roe_series": [23.0, 12.3, 13.2, 14.6, 11.6, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.1, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.6, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.4, "capex_dep": 10.05, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 21.7, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.6, "np_cagr3": 5.7, "rev_yoy": -1.0, "np_yoy": -16.8, "np_vol": 16.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["软件开发及服务", 16.0], ["金融科技解决方案", 15.0], ["智慧客服及消费金融精准营销", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 118.1, "ret_prev2_year": 8.6, "ret_ytd": -31.0, "ret_pivot": 98.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -45.2, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 37.1, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 50, "hard": 7, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.5 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 10.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.5 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 7% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "京北方:PE 比行业中位低 41.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}