{"F": {"ts_code": "002986.SZ", "name": "宇新股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.52, "pe_ttm": 107.1374, "pb": 1.2917, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 513924.1328, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.1, 10.9, 12.8, 16.6, 18.3, 8.8], "rev_series": [23.0, 32.0, 62.6, 66.1, 77.0, 81.6], "np_series": [0.3, 1.4, 4.3, 4.5, 3.1, -0.4], "roe_series": [2.3, 7.2, 19.2, 14.6, 7.9, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 6.7, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.2, "fix_assets": 60.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.29, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 40.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": 78.2, "payout": 22.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 64.7, "np_yoy": 400.6, "np_vol": 163.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["化工及新材料", 31.0], ["化工", 31.0], ["能源类", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.1, "ret_prev2_year": -23.8, "ret_ytd": 25.7, "ret_pivot": 35.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.0, "ret_60": 19.8, "ret_120": -17.5, "ret_250": 8.9, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 39.4, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 43, "hard": 98, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 61%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 20% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "宇新股份:PE 比行业中位高 82.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点。"]}}