{"F": {"ts_code": "002985.SZ", "name": "北摩高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.71, "pe_ttm": 41.8745, "pb": 3.3463, "dv_ttm": 0.4691, "total_mv": 919566.3256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.4, 78.9, 67.2, 59.8, 52.8, 48.1], "rev_series": [6.9, 11.3, 10.0, 9.5, 5.4, 9.2], "np_series": [3.2, 4.2, 3.1, 2.2, 0.2, 2.0], "roe_series": [19.8, 18.7, 11.6, 7.1, 0.6, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 59.8, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 26.8, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 3.35, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 24.2, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": -14.0, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": 24.2, "np_vol": 468.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 35.8, "fwd_pe2": 28.0, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["起降系统产品", 24.0], ["航空相关设备制造", 24.0], ["检测试验", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.3, "ret_prev2_year": -31.7, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 63.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -27.1, "ret_250": -7.2, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 43.7, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 62, "hard": 23, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.9 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 59.8%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 59.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.8%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.9 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "北摩高科:PE 比行业中位低 32.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 27.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}