{"F": {"ts_code": "002984.SZ", "name": "森麒麟", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.76, "pe_ttm": 16.332, "pb": 1.054, "dv_ttm": 2.5428, "total_mv": 1425930.7744, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.8, 23.3, 20.5, 25.2, 32.8, 21.3], "rev_series": [47.1, 51.8, 62.9, 78.4, 85.1, 86.1], "np_series": [9.8, 7.5, 8.0, 13.7, 21.9, 11.2], "roe_series": [21.4, 12.4, 11.2, 14.1, 17.3, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 89.1, "np_ttm": 8.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -13.3, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.9, "fix_assets": 81.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.03, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 26.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 23.3, "debt_mv": 18.5, "payout": 23.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.0, "np_cagr3": 12.0, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": -37.5, "np_vol": 46.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 11.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轮胎", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.1, "ret_prev2_year": 23.4, "ret_ytd": -34.8, "ret_pivot": -38.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -27.8, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 29.3, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 44, "hard": 72, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.3 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%、固定资产占比 45%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.3 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -2% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "森麒麟:PE 比行业中位低 13.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}