{"F": {"ts_code": "002982.SZ", "name": "湘佳股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.13, "pe_ttm": 177.8143, "pb": 1.6927, "dv_ttm": 0.7616, "total_mv": 266793.722, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 17.6, 19.0, 12.6, 18.0, 14.3], "rev_series": [21.9, 30.1, 38.2, 38.9, 42.0, 44.7], "np_series": [1.7, 0.3, 1.1, -1.5, 1.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [14.5, 1.6, 6.2, -8.4, 5.8, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.6, "fix_assets": 25.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 19.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 72.3, "payout": 51.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": -32.2, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": -306.8, "np_vol": 196.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 65.7, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": 171.0, "fwd_g2": 115.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冷鲜", 35.0], ["冰鲜", 35.0], ["活禽", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.7, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -3.7, "ret_pivot": 32.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -11.6, "ret_250": -17.9, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 80.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 43, "hard": 91, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 177.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -1% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "湘佳股份:PE 比行业中位高 138.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}