{"F": {"ts_code": "002981.SZ", "name": "朝阳科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.24, "pe_ttm": 115.1865, "pb": 3.1686, "dv_ttm": 0.6936, "total_mv": 331018.5312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 8.1, 17.6, 24.0, 21.9, 21.8], "rev_series": [9.0, 13.1, 13.9, 14.3, 17.3, 18.2], "np_series": [0.5, -0.4, 0.6, 1.2, 1.1, 0.7], "roe_series": [7.1, -5.1, 7.3, 13.8, 11.7, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 38.6, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": 8.3, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": -85.9, "np_vol": 143.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["耳机成品", 63.0], ["精密零组件及其他", 13.0], ["音响类产品", 12.0], ["音响类", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.0, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 30.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": -14.0, "ret_120": -3.8, "ret_250": -29.0, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 41.8, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 45, "hard": 54, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 115.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -14% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "朝阳科技:PE 比行业中位高 68.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}