{"F": {"ts_code": "002979.SZ", "name": "雷赛智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.02, "pe_ttm": 55.8439, "pb": 8.187, "dv_ttm": 0.4704, "total_mv": 1675634.0062, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.6, 41.6, 37.6, 38.3, 38.4, 39.0], "rev_series": [9.5, 12.0, 13.4, 14.2, 15.8, 18.7], "np_series": [1.8, 2.2, 2.2, 1.4, 2.0, 2.3], "roe_series": [20.8, 20.3, 19.4, 11.0, 14.3, 13.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 14.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.4, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 8.19, "capex_dep": 2.57, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 39.2, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 34.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.9, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": 39.9, "np_yoy": 62.8, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 46.5, "fwd_pe2": 35.0, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["伺服系统类", 26.0], ["步进系统类", 15.0], ["控制技术类", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.4, "ret_prev2_year": 44.9, "ret_ytd": 26.8, "ret_pivot": 195.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.8, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": 38.5, "ret_250": 10.7, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 57, "hard": 20, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / 4% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "雷赛智能:PE 比行业中位低 21.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}