{"F": {"ts_code": "002978.SZ", "name": "安宁股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.08, "pe_ttm": 19.8634, "pb": 1.3712, "dv_ttm": 1.1498, "total_mv": 1230949.92, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.5, 74.5, 70.8, 66.6, 64.2, 62.3], "rev_series": [16.4, 23.0, 20.0, 18.6, 18.6, 20.1], "np_series": [7.0, 14.4, 10.9, 9.4, 8.5, 7.2], "roe_series": [21.9, 32.4, 21.3, 16.3, 12.0, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.2, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 10.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.9, "fcf_yield": -4.0, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 66.6, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 6.2, "npm_median": 50.4, "roe_median": 16.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 31.1, "fix_assets": 54.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.37, "capex_dep": 6.37, "interest_debt": 55.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 48.1, "debt_mv": 44.7, "payout": 42.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -13.0, "rev_yoy": -8.4, "np_yoy": -22.7, "np_vol": 48.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 17.3, "fwd_pe2": 15.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["钒钛铁精矿(61%)", 21.0], ["钒钛铁精矿", 21.0], ["钛精矿", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 11.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": -30.2, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -41.7, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 70, "hard": 50, "bondness": 55}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 54 亿,占总资产 31%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他小金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.0%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 75%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 31%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 66.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 6.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 1% / -30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "安宁股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 48.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点。"]}}