{"F": {"ts_code": "002977.SZ", "name": "*ST天箭", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200317", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.978, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 251531.28, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.7, 49.5, 43.0, 45.0, 51.3, null], "rev_series": [2.2, 2.8, 3.4, 1.7, 1.4, -1.7], "np_series": [0.8, 1.1, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, -2.3], "roe_series": [12.7, 11.5, 7.0, 4.6, 1.5, -23.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": -2.2, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 47.3, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -12.7, "npm_median": 25.6, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.98, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 8.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 90.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -78.3, "np_yoy": 69.8, "np_vol": 594.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["弹载固态发射机-生产", 33.0], ["固态发射机", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.6, "ret_prev2_year": -22.9, "ret_ytd": -40.7, "ret_pivot": -12.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.7, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -49.1, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 47.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 30, "bondness": 45}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 9%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.3%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -8% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "*ST天箭:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}