{"F": {"ts_code": "002973.SZ", "name": "侨银股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.65, "pe_ttm": 50.3105, "pb": 2.0311, "dv_ttm": 0.7905, "total_mv": 516962.1105, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 24.2, 25.4, 26.0, 26.9, 27.2], "rev_series": [28.3, 33.3, 39.5, 39.4, 39.1, 36.1], "np_series": [3.8, 2.6, 3.1, 3.2, 2.9, 1.8], "roe_series": [30.0, 16.4, 17.6, 15.4, 12.5, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 26.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 34.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 66.0, "debt_mv": 66.9, "payout": 14.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": -16.4, "rev_yoy": -12.8, "np_yoy": -65.1, "np_vol": 21.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["城乡环卫保洁", 89.0], ["生活垃圾处置", 4.0], ["其他环卫服务", 3.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.7, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": -6.8, "ret_pivot": 68.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.7, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -7.7, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 55, "hard": 11, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.3 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 1% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "侨银股份:PE 比行业中位高 24.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点。"]}}