{"F": {"ts_code": "002972.SZ", "name": "科安达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.66, "pe_ttm": 37.6606, "pb": 2.5211, "dv_ttm": 2.3584, "total_mv": 311447.1408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.3, 62.3, 68.7, 56.7, 58.7, 57.4], "rev_series": [3.6, 4.0, 3.7, 2.4, 3.2, 3.8], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 1.2, 0.6, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [12.6, 12.7, 9.8, 5.0, 7.2, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 58.7, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 7.5, "npm_median": 27.5, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.52, "capex_dep": 2.81, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 11.8, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 84.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": -10.6, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": 30.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["系统集成设备", 31.0], ["系统集成", 31.0], ["防雷避雷业务", 13.0], ["防雷及智能诊断", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.6, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": 7.3, "ret_pivot": 47.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": 4.1, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 73, "hard": 15, "bondness": 63}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,自由现金流/市值 4.3%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.7 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -3% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "科安达:PE 比行业中位高 11.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}