{"F": {"ts_code": "002971.SZ", "name": "和远气体", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.65, "pe_ttm": 172.6749, "pb": 3.8183, "dv_ttm": 0.1294, "total_mv": 814065.625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.4, 28.7, 22.1, 18.3, 19.5, 18.9], "rev_series": [8.2, 9.9, 13.2, 16.5, 15.3, 16.6], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [10.2, 8.1, 6.4, 6.7, 5.1, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.2, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -13.3, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.7, "fix_assets": 51.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 4.37, "interest_debt": 24.7, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 65.3, "debt_mv": 30.3, "payout": 19.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": -7.1, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": -26.8, "np_vol": 12.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["大宗气体", 39.0], ["工业级化学品", 22.0], ["清洁能源(产品)", 11.0], ["清洁能源", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.2, "ret_prev2_year": -11.9, "ret_ytd": 29.6, "ret_pivot": 171.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.8, "ret_60": -26.7, "ret_120": 23.0, "ret_250": 42.4, "mdd_250": -56.9, "vol_250": 69.6, "pos_52w": 51.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 42, "hard": 100, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 72%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 4.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 172.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -27% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "和远气体:PE 比行业中位高 136.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 37.2个百分点。"]}}