{"F": {"ts_code": "002969.SZ", "name": "嘉美包装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "金属包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.13, "pe_ttm": 105.0993, "pb": 4.4244, "dv_ttm": 0.1315, "total_mv": 1442324.8541, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 12.4, 8.8, 14.7, 15.9, 13.4], "rev_series": [19.9, 34.5, 29.8, 31.5, 32.0, 28.1], "np_series": [0.3, 1.6, 0.2, 1.5, 1.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [1.7, 7.4, 0.7, 6.3, 7.4, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.7, "fix_assets": 22.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.42, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 24.4, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 44.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": 72.0, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 256.5, "np_vol": 339.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 119.4, "fwd_pe2": 109.4, "fwd_g1": -12.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 13.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["三片罐", 21.0], ["二片罐", 9.0], ["两片罐", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 311.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.3, "ret_ytd": 3.7, "ret_pivot": 395.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -11.9, "ret_120": -50.4, "ret_250": 260.7, "mdd_250": -69.0, "vol_250": 75.6, "pos_52w": 39.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 40, "hard": 84, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 105.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 261%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -12% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "嘉美包装:PE 比行业中位高 66.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.9个百分点。"]}}