{"F": {"ts_code": "002968.SZ", "name": "新大正", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产服务", "sw3": "物业管理", "ind": "房地产服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.6, "pe_ttm": 22.6008, "pb": 1.6907, "dv_ttm": 1.5484, "total_mv": 217226.688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 18.7, 16.2, 12.8, 11.7, 12.3], "rev_series": [13.2, 20.9, 26.0, 31.3, 33.9, 30.1], "np_series": [1.3, 1.7, 1.9, 1.6, 1.1, 0.9], "roe_series": [16.4, 18.2, 17.8, 13.9, 9.5, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 13.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.1, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.2, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 2.24, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.7, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": -20.1, "rev_yoy": 4.9, "np_yoy": 1.7, "np_vol": 20.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.6, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 2.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["基础业务", 43.0], ["城市服务", 5.0], ["创新业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.6, "ret_prev2_year": -25.6, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": 11.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": -12.8, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 36.1, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 38, "hard": 13, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.6 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.6 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 2% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产服务」12 家中位:PE 38.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 14.2% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 37%。", "新大正:PE 比行业中位低 15.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}