{"F": {"ts_code": "002963.SZ", "name": "豪尔赛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "sw3": "装修装饰Ⅲ", "ind": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6055, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 302824.8386, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 31.4, 18.6, 36.4, 31.7, 23.8], "rev_series": [6.0, 7.9, 4.1, 5.4, 4.6, 3.5], "np_series": [0.4, 0.1, -1.6, 0.2, -1.8, -1.3], "roe_series": [2.6, 0.8, -9.8, 1.2, -12.5, -10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -15.7, "npm_median": -37.1, "roe_median": -9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 3.03, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -23.5, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 600.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["照明工程施工业务", 83.0], ["其他主营业务", 9.0], ["其他业务", 9.0], ["照明工程设计业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.8, "ret_prev2_year": -25.1, "ret_ytd": 35.3, "ret_pivot": 113.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 7.2, "ret_120": 27.4, "ret_250": 46.7, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 65.0, "pos_52w": 87.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 10, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 3.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 7% / 27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修装饰Ⅱ」22 家中位:PE 49.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 12.9% / 固定资产占比 8% / 分红率 28%。", "豪尔赛:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}