{"F": {"ts_code": "002962.SZ", "name": "五方光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.82, "pe_ttm": 153.6614, "pb": 2.129, "dv_ttm": 0.772, "total_mv": 373914.9146, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 22.3, 15.7, 14.4, 15.5, 11.4], "rev_series": [5.9, 7.9, 10.3, 8.4, 10.8, 11.8], "np_series": [1.4, 0.8, 0.9, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [8.3, 4.8, 4.9, 3.7, 3.6, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 15.5, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -20.9, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.4, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 17.6, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 87.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.6, "np_cagr3": -25.2, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": -46.4, "np_vol": 18.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["红外截止滤光片", 76.0], ["光学棱镜", 6.0], ["LED光学棱镜灯", 6.0], ["生物识别滤光片", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.9, "ret_prev2_year": -25.6, "ret_ytd": -12.9, "ret_pivot": 3.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -33.3, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 48.1, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 38, "hard": 31, "bondness": 56}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 153.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.5%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 153.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -33% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "五方光电:PE 比行业中位高 92.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}