{"F": {"ts_code": "002960.SZ", "name": "青鸟智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.77, "pe_ttm": 30.8315, "pb": 1.4878, "dv_ttm": 1.4115, "total_mv": 924125.3319, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 37.1, 37.1, 38.3, 36.6, 34.7], "rev_series": [25.2, 38.6, 46.0, 49.7, 49.2, 47.0], "np_series": [4.3, 5.3, 5.7, 6.6, 3.5, 3.2], "roe_series": [14.8, 16.0, 12.2, 10.9, 5.7, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.7, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 37.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.6, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 4.3, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 2.62, "interest_debt": 23.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 35.2, "debt_mv": 24.9, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.7, "np_cagr3": -17.5, "rev_yoy": -6.0, "np_yoy": -12.5, "np_vol": 24.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 20.6, "fwd_pe2": 16.8, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.9, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["国内民商用消防业务", 46.0], ["海外消防业务", 20.0], ["工业与行业领域的消防业务", 15.0], ["国内工业与行业领域的消防业务", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.1, "ret_prev2_year": -13.9, "ret_ytd": 1.6, "ret_pivot": 48.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": -0.8, "ret_120": -1.5, "ret_250": -1.0, "mdd_250": -32.9, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 58, "hard": 19, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.8 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.1%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -1% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "青鸟智控:PE 比行业中位低 11.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}