{"F": {"ts_code": "002959.SZ", "name": "小熊电器", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "小家电", "sw3": "厨房小家电", "ind": "小家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.42, "pe_ttm": 16.4076, "pb": 1.7438, "dv_ttm": 3.9907, "total_mv": 505212.5312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 32.8, 36.4, 36.6, 35.3, 36.7], "rev_series": [36.6, 36.1, 41.2, 47.1, 47.6, 52.3], "np_series": [4.3, 2.8, 3.9, 4.5, 2.9, 3.9], "roe_series": [23.5, 14.0, 17.4, 17.5, 10.4, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.4, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.7, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.71, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 11.0, "payout": 52.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": -7.3, "np_yoy": -41.3, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 13.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["厨房小家电", 59.0], ["个护小家电", 11.0], ["生活小家电", 9.0], ["其他业务收入", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": -20.8, "ret_pivot": -6.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -25.8, "ret_250": -35.7, "mdd_250": -43.4, "vol_250": 24.9, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 62, "hard": 35, "bondness": 57}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 52%、股息率 4.0%、营收 3 年复合 8.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.4%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.4 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -4% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小家电」23 家中位:PE 50.5 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 50%。", "小熊电器:PE 比行业中位低 34.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}