{"F": {"ts_code": "002957.SZ", "name": "科瑞技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.2, "pe_ttm": 50.1764, "pb": 4.7248, "dv_ttm": 0.6718, "total_mv": 1562334.528, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.1, 33.9, 35.9, 33.3, 36.2, 33.4], "rev_series": [20.1, 21.6, 32.5, 28.6, 24.5, 26.3], "np_series": [2.9, 0.4, 3.1, 1.7, 1.4, 2.7], "roe_series": [12.0, 1.4, 11.9, 6.1, 4.8, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 33.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 4.72, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 40.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.7, "np_cagr3": -4.5, "rev_yoy": 32.7, "np_yoy": 31.1, "np_vol": 328.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 42.3, "fwd_pe2": 32.1, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 1.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["自动化设备", 32.0], ["精密零部件", 8.0], ["自动化设备配件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.0, "ret_ytd": 73.8, "ret_pivot": 238.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": -27.9, "ret_120": 43.1, "ret_250": 113.7, "mdd_250": -53.7, "vol_250": 71.3, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 55, "hard": 24, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.9%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.9%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.2 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 114%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -28% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "科瑞技术:PE 比行业中位低 27.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}