{"F": {"ts_code": "002956.SZ", "name": "西麦食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "烘焙食品", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.77, "pe_ttm": 21.9823, "pb": 3.1853, "dv_ttm": 2.2932, "total_mv": 524139.1389, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.5, 46.7, 43.1, 44.5, 41.3, 42.0], "rev_series": [10.2, 11.5, 13.3, 15.8, 19.0, 22.4], "np_series": [1.3, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.7], "roe_series": [9.8, 7.7, 7.9, 8.1, 9.0, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 43.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.2, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 69.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": 16.4, "rev_yoy": 22.0, "np_yoy": 81.9, "np_vol": 16.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 18.6, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["复合燕麦片", 46.0], ["纯燕麦片", 34.0], ["冷食燕麦片", 6.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.5, "ret_prev2_year": 20.3, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 141.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": -4.9, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -32.7, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 59, "hard": 47, "bondness": 40}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 82%,PE TTM 22.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.6 倍,PEG 0.74。", "自由现金流 3.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 25%(26 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.1%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -21% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "西麦食品:PE 比行业中位高 0.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}