{"F": {"ts_code": "002955.SZ", "name": "鸿合科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.93, "pe_ttm": 500.5726, "pb": 2.8736, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 921239.1307, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 20.9, 29.2, 31.9, 28.0, 24.5], "rev_series": [39.9, 58.1, 45.5, 39.3, 35.3, 32.4], "np_series": [0.8, 1.7, 4.0, 3.2, 2.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [2.8, 5.5, 11.8, 9.3, 6.4, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 5.7, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 27.2, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 83.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -10.7, "np_cagr3": -49.3, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": -74.7, "np_vol": 82.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["IWB产品", 38.0], ["其他智能交互产品", 10.0], ["智能视听解决方案", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.3, "ret_ytd": 28.6, "ret_pivot": 100.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 26.7, "ret_120": 50.0, "ret_250": 45.0, "mdd_250": -26.7, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 96.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 25, "bondness": 52}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 500.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 500.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 45%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 27% / 50%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "鸿合科技:PE 比行业中位高 439.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点。"]}}