{"F": {"ts_code": "002951.SZ", "name": "金时科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.1934, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 637647.0898, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 33.4, 23.8, 28.6, 9.4, 14.0], "rev_series": [6.4, 3.9, 1.8, 0.3, 3.8, 4.3], "np_series": [1.9, 0.6, -0.4, -0.4, -0.0, -2.4], "roe_series": [13.8, 3.7, -2.2, -2.3, -0.2, -13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.8, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": -3.2, "gm_median": 23.8, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -15.5, "npm_median": -21.7, "roe_median": -2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 4.19, "capex_dep": 7.98, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 23.0, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 32.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -64.1, "np_yoy": 76.7, "np_vol": 2108.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["储能系统锂离子电池热失控探测预警及防控装置", 49.0], ["储能消防", 49.0], ["储能设备", 1.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 141.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": 6.2, "ret_pivot": 267.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 64.7, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 25, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 23%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 -3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.8%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 7.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -2% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "金时科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}