{"F": {"ts_code": "002948.SZ", "name": "青岛银行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "银行", "sw2": "城商行Ⅱ", "sw3": "城商行Ⅲ", "ind": "城商行Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190116", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.35, "pe_ttm": 6.437, "pb": 0.8456, "dv_ttm": 2.8346, "total_mv": 3695925.2345, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [105.4, 111.4, 116.4, 124.7, 135.0, 145.7], "np_series": [23.9, 29.2, 30.8, 35.5, 42.6, 51.9], "roe_series": [8.0, 9.3, 9.0, 9.5, 10.3, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 152.7, "np_ttm": 57.4, "ocf_ttm": 273.3, "fcf_ttm": 268.6, "fcf_yield": 72.7, "ocf_yield": 73.9, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 29.4, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 33.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.71, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 1066.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 93.7, "debt_mv": 288.6, "payout": 23.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.8, "np_cagr3": 18.9, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": 18.1, "np_vol": 6.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 22.0, "earn_yield": 15.5, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 6.2, "fwd_pe2": 5.3, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["利息净收入：利息收入", 27.0], ["产品", 19.0], ["利息收入:发放贷款及垫款:公司贷款和垫款(产品)", 14.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入：发放贷款和垫款利息收入：公", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.5, "ret_prev2_year": 38.8, "ret_ytd": 47.7, "ret_pivot": 126.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": 22.8, "ret_250": 31.7, "mdd_250": -21.2, "vol_250": 28.4, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 15, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 40}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["青岛银行 是城商行Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 9.5%,PB 0.85倍,股息率 2.8%,分红率 23%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 15.5%(1/PE)与股息率 2.8% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6.4 倍 粗算,约 22%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 11% / 23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「城商行Ⅱ」17 家中位:PE 6.4 / 股息率 3.9% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 30%。", "青岛银行:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}