{"F": {"ts_code": "002946.SZ", "name": "新乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.58, "pe_ttm": 16.7718, "pb": 3.7926, "dv_ttm": 2.8883, "total_mv": 1340944.114, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 24.6, 24.0, 26.9, 28.4, 29.2], "rev_series": [67.5, 89.7, 100.1, 109.9, 106.7, 112.3], "np_series": [2.7, 3.1, 3.6, 4.3, 5.4, 7.3], "roe_series": [11.7, 11.8, 14.0, 17.0, 19.2, 21.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 115.2, "np_ttm": 8.0, "ocf_ttm": 16.1, "fcf_ttm": 10.0, "fcf_yield": 7.5, "ocf_yield": 12.0, "gm_median": 26.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 17.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 27.9, "goodwill_ratio": 11.7, "pb_calc": 3.69, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 22.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": 51.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.9, "np_cagr3": 26.5, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": 17.2, "np_vol": 7.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 32, "fwd_pe": 15.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.3, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["液体乳", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["奶粉", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.3, "ret_prev2_year": 30.0, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 80.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.3, "ret_60": -3.2, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -29.4, "vol_250": 37.9, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 53, "hard": 53, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.8 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.5%(经营现金流/市值 12.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -3% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "新乳业:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点。"]}}