{"F": {"ts_code": "002941.SZ", "name": "新疆交建", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20181128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.98, "pe_ttm": 20.0406, "pb": 1.6426, "dv_ttm": 1.8215, "total_mv": 801266.8176, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.6, 7.9, 11.3, 8.8, 14.3, 11.0], "rev_series": [71.4, 116.2, 79.0, 80.9, 68.6, 94.3], "np_series": [1.1, 2.5, 3.5, 3.3, 3.2, 4.7], "roe_series": [4.6, 9.5, 12.1, 10.4, 9.2, 11.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.3, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": -4.9, "fcf_ttm": -19.3, "fcf_yield": -24.1, "ocf_yield": -6.1, "gm_median": 11.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 6.8, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.4, "fix_assets": 5.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 27.25, "interest_debt": 80.1, "debt_ebitda": 10.5, "debt_ratio": 71.1, "debt_mv": 100.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": 10.4, "rev_yoy": 35.4, "np_yoy": -28.5, "np_vol": 45.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["施工业", 96.0], ["勘测设计与试验检测及车辆通行等", 1.0], ["勘测设计与试验检测及车辆通行", 1.0], ["贸易", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.6, "ret_prev2_year": -13.5, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 24.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -33.0, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 39.5, "pos_52w": 53.8}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 45, "hard": 4, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.0 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%、固定资产占比 2%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -24.1%(经营现金流/市值 -6.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 27.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.0 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "新疆交建:PE 比行业中位高 8.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}