{"F": {"ts_code": "002939.SZ", "name": "长城证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20181026", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.13, "pe_ttm": 13.8915, "pb": 1.0158, "dv_ttm": 2.4108, "total_mv": 3279989.0697, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [68.7, 77.6, 31.3, 39.9, 40.2, 52.0], "np_series": [15.0, 17.7, 9.0, 14.4, 15.8, 23.5], "roe_series": [8.6, 9.4, 3.8, 5.1, 5.4, 7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.8, "np_ttm": 23.6, "ocf_ttm": 88.5, "fcf_ttm": 87.4, "fcf_yield": 26.6, "ocf_yield": 27.0, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 35.8, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 284.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 79.2, "debt_mv": 86.8, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.4, "np_cagr3": 37.8, "rev_yoy": -0.5, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 38.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 12.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 22.0], ["财富管理", 12.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 12.0], ["证券经纪业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.4, "ret_prev2_year": 4.7, "ret_ytd": -19.3, "ret_pivot": 25.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -12.3, "ret_250": -32.3, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 27.4, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 31}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["长城证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.4%,PB 1.02倍,股息率 2.4%,分红率 33%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 7.2%(1/PE)与股息率 2.4% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.9 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 5% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "长城证券:PE 比行业中位低 1.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}