{"F": {"ts_code": "002938.SZ", "name": "鹏鼎控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180918", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 83.29, "pe_ttm": 50.9508, "pb": 5.614, "dv_ttm": 1.2006, "total_mv": 19302763.1743, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 20.4, 24.0, 21.3, 20.8, 21.5], "rev_series": [298.5, 333.1, 362.1, 320.7, 351.4, 391.5], "np_series": [28.4, 33.2, 50.1, 32.9, 36.2, 37.4], "roe_series": [13.7, 14.6, 19.4, 11.4, 11.7, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 399.9, "np_ttm": 37.9, "ocf_ttm": 61.9, "fcf_ttm": -38.3, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 21.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.1, "fix_assets": 246.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.61, "capex_dep": 3.03, "interest_debt": 86.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 35.3, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 62.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": -9.3, "rev_yoy": 5.1, "np_yoy": 4.1, "np_vol": 27.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 36.6, "fwd_pe2": 24.8, "fwd_g1": 39.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通讯用板", 52.0], ["消费电子及计算机用板", 24.0], ["汽车、服务器用板", 12.0], ["汽车/服务器用板", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.8, "ret_prev2_year": 74.0, "ret_ytd": 68.0, "ret_pivot": 181.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.9, "ret_60": -21.1, "ret_120": 66.1, "ret_250": 58.4, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 69.3, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 53, "hard": 72, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 51.0 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%、固定资产占比 45%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 3.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.0 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 58%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -21% / 66%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "鹏鼎控股:PE 比行业中位低 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}