{"F": {"ts_code": "002937.SZ", "name": "兴瑞科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.04, "pe_ttm": 68.4583, "pb": 4.5193, "dv_ttm": 1.0014, "total_mv": 886091.1988, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 24.3, 26.4, 26.9, 25.4, 23.6], "rev_series": [10.4, 12.5, 17.7, 20.1, 19.0, 17.6], "np_series": [1.3, 1.1, 2.2, 2.7, 2.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [13.2, 11.0, 18.9, 19.2, 14.6, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.7, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 25.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 9.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.52, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 22.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": -12.9, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": -18.2, "np_vol": 45.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 43.8, "fwd_pe2": 35.9, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["汽车电子", 19.0], ["智能终端产品", 14.0], ["智能终端", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.6, "ret_prev2_year": -35.0, "ret_ytd": 19.8, "ret_pivot": 80.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -24.1, "ret_120": 4.7, "ret_250": 48.3, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 51, "hard": 60, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 68.5 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -24% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "兴瑞科技:PE 比行业中位高 38.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}