{"F": {"ts_code": "002935.SZ", "name": "天奥电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180903", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.78, "pe_ttm": 101.2423, "pb": 4.1377, "dv_ttm": 0.3186, "total_mv": 665659.1016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.4, 29.4, 28.2, 27.5, 23.8, 22.3], "rev_series": [9.2, 10.4, 12.1, 11.1, 9.6, 9.8], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.8, 8.6, 7.7, 5.7, 4.1, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.3, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.14, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": -16.8, "rev_yoy": -4.8, "np_yoy": 11.3, "np_vol": 15.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["频率系列产品", 52.0], ["时间同步系列产品", 47.0], ["北斗卫星应用产品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.4, "ret_prev2_year": 6.4, "ret_ytd": -29.2, "ret_pivot": 22.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -21.6, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -8.5, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 48.7, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 52, "hard": 16, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 101.2 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 101.2 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -22% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "天奥电子:PE 比行业中位高 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}