{"F": {"ts_code": "002933.SZ", "name": "新兴装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180828", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.93, "pe_ttm": 81.6302, "pb": 2.1003, "dv_ttm": 0.0716, "total_mv": 327758.55, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.7, 50.4, 31.6, 31.9, 25.9, 35.5], "rev_series": [3.2, 2.5, 1.9, 4.2, 4.6, 4.1], "np_series": [1.0, -0.0, -0.6, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [6.3, -0.1, -4.0, 1.0, 1.3, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 31.9, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -38.0, "npm_median": 3.0, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.1, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 12.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 29.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": 4.3, "np_vol": 1233.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机载设备", 88.0], ["技术服务及其他", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": 16.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -28.1, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 46, "hard": 8, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 82 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 31%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.9%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -38.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "新兴装备:PE 比行业中位高 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点。"]}}